![]() ![]() ![]() The resurgence of Russia should be considered with the redistribution of geostrategic power from the West to the East and the continued rise of China with increasing political and military influence over global affairs. Russia’s continued involvement in Libya, Syria and the wider Middle East to reclaim its status as a global power broker has generated greater concern. Russia’s aggressive actions and assertive rhetoric over the last two decades, such as the use of military power for illegal annexation of Crimea, increased and sometimes provoked military activities in the Euro-Atlantic area. The end of the Cold War marked a great success for the West, although it resulted in an increasingly complex relationship with Russia. The glossy print version is available by clicking the report image above, and the text version with footnotes is available here. The confluence of these trends could significantly challenge governments, economies, societies, and food and water resources, contributing to instability and uncertainty in certain countries in the region for at least the next two decades. Overall, the most significant trends affecting all other trends in North Africa and the Sahel are expected population growth, climate change, and challenges in politics and governance. However, as a whole and not entirely driven by negative circumstances or events, North Africa and the Sahel will require continuing focus and attention from Europe and NATO for the next 20 years and beyond. In most areas, the Sahel will continue to lag behind the countries in North Africa in terms of modernization, integration, security and stability, and economic development. North Africa will likely continue its current trajectory of closer integration with more developed countries. Not only are there significant differences between each country across the region, there are significant differences between North Africa and the Sahel, which makes forming collective conclusions about the two sub-regions difficult. While there are positive trends in North Africa and the Sahel economically, socially, and technologically, they will not overcome the inertia of more challenging and longer-term problems, leaving the region struggling with instability and stagnation over the next two decades. North Africa and the Sahel, increasingly recognised as a crucial region influencing the current and future security perspective of Europe and the NATO Alliance as a whole, have demonstrated the potential to alter the political and economic status quo of the European continent. Strategic Foresight Analysis Regional Perspectives Report on North Africa and the Sahel Using these insights NATO will continue Improving today, shaping tomorrow, and bridging the two. This product will be developed with the input from a diverse, cross-cutting, and highly informed group of experts from throughout the Alliance. The new Strategic Foresight Analysis, the first since 2017, is due next year. Strategic Foresight was re-established by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, General Philippe Lavigne in July 2022 and has since concluded 4 workshops involving 300 experts in Washington, Norfolk, Helsinki, and Berlin. NATO's Allied Command Transformation serves as a platform to foster knowledge within this diverse community, including planners, futurists, think-tanks and industry experts. These capabilities will allow the Alliance to remain fit for purpose even under disruptive changes and strategic shocks. The revived NATO strategic foresight community opens up new opportunities to improve our understanding of future scenarios and trends, to support development of Allied capabilities. Without these crucial factors aligning with the ability of the Alliance to fight and win as a team, success will be challenging. The key for success in future conflicts is adaptation, resilience, deterrence, and the will to fight, if called upon to do so. Future war will take place within multi-domain settings with space and cyber as decisive factors, but the centre of gravity for future conflicts will be society, which has increasingly been targeted with violence. States need to step up to inspire and utilize innovation, while the armed forces have to keep transforming to continue to be prepared for dynamic future developments. Societies are increasingly central platforms for innovation and resilience, but they have to be protected, employing human security. ![]() The thesis from NATO experts emphasized that the most important drivers of future trends will be climate change, technology and their impact on societies, states and armed forces. ![]()
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